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If American citizens in Israel were to choose the next president of the United States, Republican nominee Donald Trump would win the election, according to the results of an exit poll taken among absentee voters in Israel obtained exclusively by The Jerusalem Post.
Trump received 49% of the Israeli-American vote, while Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton got 44%, according to the poll conducted by get-out-the-vote organization iVoteIsrael and KEEVOON Global Research.
Another 2% voted for Libertarian Gary Johnson, and the rest chose “other” or said they voted for Congress and not a presidential candidate.
Full results of the exit poll, including state-by-state results, will be available on Thursday. The poll was taken on Monday-Wednesday of this week, among 1,140 respondents, and has a 3% margin of error.
According to the US Vote Foundation, an international get-out-the-vote organization for absentee voters, the top 10 states for voters sending ballots from Israel are New York – from which a third of such voters hail – New Jersey, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland and Texas. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are swing states.
Keevoon Global Research conducted a poll of 1,140 people on Oct 31-Nov 2 with a 3% margin of error for the iVoteIsrael NGO that was published on Nov 3 2016.
Estimates put the final number of Israeli voters who participated in US election at about 30,000.
Which candidate did you vote for President?
49% Trump, 44% Clinton, 5% Other/abstain, 2% Johnson, 0% Stein
Vote by age: Clinton leads with 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 brackets. Trump leads with 45-54, 55-64 and 65+ brackets. Clinton best is 25-34 and Trump best is 65+.
Vote by gender:
Males: 59% Trump, 33% Clinton, 8% Other
Females: 52% Clinton, 42% Trump, 6% Other
Vote by religiosity:
Secular: 75% Clinton, 22% Trump, 3% Other
Traditional: 54% Clinton, 40% Trump, 6% Other
Religious: 63% Trump, 27% Clinton, 10% Other
Ultra-orthodox: 85% Trump, 11% Clinton, 4% Other
What is your party affiliation?
33% Democrat, 27% Republican, 22% Don’t remember, 18% Independent or no party
Dem registered voters: 72% Clinton, 25% Trump, 3% Other
GOP registered voters: 83% Trump, 10% Clinton, 7% Other
Independents/not registered with party: 45% Trump, Clinton 44%
Top 10 States Breakdown:
35% New York: Trump 52%, Clinton 39%, Other 9%
10% New Jersey: Trump 62%, Clinton 28%, Other 10%
8% California: Trump 52%, Clinton 41%, Other 7%
6% Maryland: Trump 58%, Clinton 38%, Other 4%
6% Pennsylvania: Clinton 55%, Trump 43%, Other 2%
5% Illinois: Clinton 62%, Trump 29%, Other 9%
5% Florida: Trump 61%, Clinton 39%, Other 0%
4% Ohio: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton, 12% Other
4% Massachusetts: Clinton 63%, Trump 26%, 11% Other
4% Michigan: Clinton 53%, Trump 47%, Other 0%
